Top economic expert with perfect record calling recessions says this one will be over by the end of 2020.

  • Campbell Harvey, a professor of finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University, correctly predicted the current recession when he saw the yield on the three-month Treasury bill was higher than the yield on the five-year Treasury note (an “inverted yield curve”) for the entire second quarter of 2019.
  • According to Harvey, the current recession will be deep but should be over by the end of the year.
  • He says he doesn’t anticipate the V-shaped recovery that others predicted earlier in the recession.  “I think it’s more what I call the ‘skinny U,’ because I do believe that we will have a vaccine by the first quarter of 2021.”